Exchange rate forecast for June. Analysts' opinions and forecasts on how the ruble will behave. Analysts versus the government: whose forecast is more accurate

The latest dollar exchange rate forecast for June 2017 suggests slight changes in the foreign exchange market. The strengthening of the ruble, which has been observed since the beginning of 2017, has a negative impact on economic development and calls into question the exit from the recession. In addition, the country's budget is suffering due to declining revenues from the sale of energy resources.

Current market position

IMF staff assure that the country's economy is recovering at a slow pace. Analysts expect GDP growth to continue in the future, indicating that the negative effects of the recession have been successfully overcome. However, external factors can again undermine the country's economy. Read also the latest dollar exchange rate forecast for July 2017.

IMF staff have identified several factors that could weaken the current situation:

• Reducing the cost of energy resources.
• Geopolitical situation, including the future fate of sanctions.
• Deterioration in the global economy.

Improvements in the economy lead to a strengthening of the Russian ruble, which continues to strengthen against all world currencies. The ruble/dollar exchange rate also decreased as a result of an improvement in the trade balance. The period from early January to March is favorable for the national currency, as during this period the number of export transactions increases.

Fresh dollar exchange rate forecast for June 2017

Employees of the Ministry of Economic Development believe that the current trend in the foreign exchange market may hinder the further development of the economy. The most recent forecast for the dollar exchange rate for June 2017 suggests that the dollar will again begin to rise in price against the ruble.

Employees of the Ministry of Economic Development also assure that the strengthening of the ruble, which we could observe since the beginning of 2017, has a negative impact on the state’s economy. The current value of the dollar does not correspond to fundamental factors and what is happening in the oil market. Maxim Oreshkin predicts a rapid depreciation of the ruble against the dollar. According to him, at the end of the second quarter of 2017, the dollar/ruble pair should experience a change in trend. Oreshkin suggests that the depreciation of the ruble will accelerate the deterioration of the trade balance. According to his forecast, the dollar will soon fall in price to 62. Experts suggest that in the future the price of oil may fall again, which will also accelerate the depreciation of the ruble. Analysts allow the price of black gold to fall to $40 per barrel. Unfortunately, the oil market has not yet reached a state of balance, which only increases uncertainty in the global market. In addition, do not forget the fact that the agreements that led to the strengthening of oil prices will cease to apply in June 2017.

A drop in oil prices to 40 will cause a sharp rise in the dollar to 65 rubles.

Upcoming reforms

In order to stop the depreciation of the ruble, the government will have to launch some reforms. In order for the country's economy not to depend on the oil market, officials need to make changes to the domestic economy. Officials must reconsider the distribution of funds from the budget, since previously all income was almost entirely spent on financing expenses, as well as on fulfilling social obligations. As a result, the country's economy suffered from a lack of investment, which stalled its development. In the future, the country's government should direct resources to the development of new projects that will contribute to economic development.

Officials also plan to change tax reform to create more favorable conditions for entrepreneurs. At the moment, discussions on this matter are still ongoing and the final version of the reform has not yet been drawn up.

The new reform is due to come into force in 2018. In addition, the country's government must take care to improve conditions for investors, as well as increase the efficiency of public administration. If all these measures are not taken, the Russian economy may fall into stagnation.

At the beginning of 2017, the ruble strengthened as a result of an improvement in the trade balance, as well as improvements in the state’s economy. However, the current market situation is beginning to negatively impact the country's economy, prompting the government to take action. Experts suggest that in June an upward trend will emerge in the dollar/ruble pair, and the price will reach 62.

Attention: this forecast was compiled for informational purposes only and is not a guide to action.

From the article you will learn:

Good afternoon, dear visitors and readers of our site. Today we will look at the dollar forecast for the week of June 12.06.2017-16.06.2017. We will consider the forecast in the context of the USD-RUB currency pair.

Fundamental Analysis

So, many experts are confident that there is practically no potential for the ruble to strengthen against the dollar. The fact is that the price of oil is falling, which puts significant pressure on the national currency of the Russian Federation.

However, the ruble continues to actively maintain its current positions, even despite the decline in the value of black gold. Soon there will be a Federal Reserve meeting in the United States, and many experts are inclined to believe that rates will be raised. In turn, if at a meeting TSB RF key rates will be lowered, then by July we can expect a significant decrease in the value of the ruble against the dollar.

Technical analysis

Now let's look at what levels you should pay attention to in order to be able to open a good position.

The figure above shows the situation for the USD RUB currency pair from the H4 interval. We see that the price managed to gain a foothold above the gray marked . There was a struggle on it for several days, but this level survived. In view of this, I consider it advisable to open a buy deal with the nearest target to the red level. However, if the gray level does not hold and the price breaks through it and consolidates below it, then in this case it will be free to consider selling with a target to the nearest green level. As for the trend, at the moment the currency pair is developing.

Total

If you believe the opinion of experts, few people now remain confident that the ruble will continue to strengthen. Still, the overwhelming majority of experts are confident that in the near future the dollar will strengthen against the ruble. We just have to monitor the situation, at the same time, wait for the highest quality signals and watch how the price behaves at the levels.

Keep in mind that exchange rates set by the central bank do not change on weekends! In the table below you can see the dollar and euro exchange rates for today, tomorrow and the week ahead. If you are interested in the future fate of currencies, follow the news and monitor quotes updates.

Current exchange rates on the InstaForex exchange

Monthly dollar and euro exchange rate forecast

What determines the dollar exchange rate, factors influencing exchange rates

If you are interested in buying or selling euros or dollars, the exchange rate is an important indicator for you every day. Today, both currencies are showing significant volatility. This is primarily due to political factors.

What affects the exchange rate between the US dollar and the euro:

• decisions made by diplomats within the framework of international cooperation. Yesterday Angela Merkel announced her readiness to reach an agreement with Russia - the euro fell slightly against the ruble. Tomorrow Donald Trump will release a new package of sanctions - the dollar exchange rate will skyrocket. Therefore, if you want to play on the currency exchange or make money by buying/selling currencies, you need to follow political news;
• economic situation in the country and in the world. Yes, even economic changes within Russia affect the position of the ruble, and, accordingly, the exchange rate of foreign currencies to it;
• decisions of the Central Bank. It is known that at the beginning of the aggravation of relations with Europe and the United States, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation tried to balance the jumps in exchange rates against the ruble using its own resources. Today, the volatility of the dollar and euro has decreased slightly, and the system of containment of the Russian banking network played a significant role in this.

Previous rate forecasts

We all remember the times when the dollar exchange rate did not exceed 35 rubles, and the euro remained at the level of 39-45 rubles. Unfortunately or fortunately, these rates have not appeared on display boards in banks and exchange offices for several years. Below is our forecast of exchange rates a few days before the rapid fall of the ruble. This information is presented just like that, as a keepsake...

Dear visitors to the site “Currency Rate Forecast for Tomorrow”, please note that the forecast for the dollar and euro exchange rates is given for informational purposes only and cannot be regarded as a guide to action! We are not responsible for the accuracy of these forecasts, because... exchange rates depend on a huge number of factors and even the most experienced trader, broker, financier (yes, in general, anyone) will not be able to predict the exchange rate for tomorrow, for a week or for a month with 100% accuracy!

Taking into account the current economic situation within the country, a very important point in investment and capital management for everyone is changes in the value of the dollar as of June 2017. It is impossible to completely predict the value of currencies and economic instruments. However, given the relationship between the dollar and a barrel of oil, a forecast can be made based on the chart and expert opinions. Some of them are expected to devaluate by mid-2017.

June 2017 can be called a crisis month.

Relationship with the price of a barrel of oil

Everyone knows that the value of the currency of the Russian Federation is interconnected with the market price of oil and gas. The cost of minerals today has fallen two and a half times compared to 2003-2004. Having a tendency to stagnate for a long period, the commodity exchange will not provide a good price per barrel by June 2017.

Evaluating these data, we can conclude that the ruble to dollar ratio will be similar. To increase the value of the ruble against the leading world currency by June 2017, it is necessary to reduce tax losses among the rich, economists say.

2017 according to leading analysts

Domestic experts start from the current financial situation in the country. Production indicators have been reduced and exports have been artificially slowed down. Any import, except the oil and gas sector, cannot cause positive trends in economic development. For a long time, the decline in Russian industry has not been restored since the perestroika stage.

Experts in the field of production and industrial development assure that in mid-2017 our compatriots will not expect positive trends towards an increase in the value of the ruble against the dollar and euro. This is possible after several years, by lifting the sanctions blocks in favor of Russia.

The Minister of Economy confirms the protracted crisis trend for the country for five years. June 2017 is no exception. It's not just the cost of imports, but also the assets of individuals. Without them, the development of less important sectors is impossible. The oil and banking industries are not interested in private small investments. Understanding the difficult situation, the media are interested in creating a stable information background on this basis by mid-2017.

The purchasing power of the ruble cannot be restored in a short time. To do this, it is necessary to attract not only friendly non-gasified countries, but also to reduce spending on the military complex. Russian funds are also interested in ensuring that the price of the dollar does not rise as of June 2017. Free assets are increasingly falling into areas that are unfavorable for the ruble zone.

From the point of view of the European Union, the price of oil will increase by 10-20 percent by mid-2017. This cost is predicted due to the current situation. The fact is that medium and small oil and gas production is not profitable at prices below $50 per barrel. We can hope for a strengthening of the ruble due to the bankruptcy of weak resource-extracting companies.

Central Bank reporting

The Russian Ministry of Economic Development promises a dollar exchange rate of 58 rubles for June 2017. The fact is that, according to the analytical department, a recession is planned for this month. This restoration process will take the entire year 2017.

For senior officials, a dollar price of 58 rubles or more will be dangerous due to high inflation rates. This will have a detrimental effect on the inflow of investment capital. The head of Sberbank announces the instability of the ruble for the next three to four years. In June 2017, the dollar will increase its value and will be 57-78 rubles.

The quote will drop below 52 rubles only after four years, but under the right circumstances. The obsolete oil and gas industries will not provide the required stable exchange rate for the ruble zone if there are economic blocs and sanctions in the Russian Federation.

We can assess the financial condition of the ruble for 2017 as unstable.

It is also worth noting that interest in the domestic debt market is gradually decreasing, despite the continuing trend towards decreasing inflationary pressure, which may be a leading signal of a gradual winding down of large-scale trading on interest rate differences. Key rate of the Bank of Russia - forecasts At a meeting in April, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, unexpectedly for many, lowered the key rate quite sharply - from 9.75 to 9.25% per annum. Most experts predicted a more gradual rate reduction by the regulator. The Bank of Russia statement also notes that inflation has already approached the target level of 4%, and inflation expectations are steadily declining. In the future, the Central Bank plans to closely monitor the dynamics of oil prices and “economic development relative to the forecast.” Experts predict a rate cut of another 25 bp. at the meeting on June 16, 2017.

US dollar exchange rate in June 2017

All together, the forecasts of Bloomberg experts are disappointing and, according to reputable traders, the process has already begun - the latest news reports that tax revenues in March 2017 decreased by 2.8% compared to March 2015.

Attention

Table of changes in the dollar exchange rate since the beginning of the year Date Exchange rate Change May 3 56.9518 +0.9912 April 1 55.9606 -2.0021 March 1 57.9627 -2.1224 February 1 60.0851 +0.189 January 10 59.8961 Latest news: what will happen to the ruble and where to store savings According to Alexei Kudrin, oil prices will fluctuate in the next five years around $40-60 per barrel: “If<этот сохранится, то курс немного ослабнет».

Dollar exchange rate forecast for the month and 2018, 2019-2021

Info

The dollar forecast for June this year is quite unusual.

By the way, the Central Bank is of the same opinion.
According to official statements, at the end of this summer Sberbank expects the dollar to fall to 48 rubles. The same forecast was published by Alfabank. However, for Russia this ruble exchange rate is not the best.

Dollar forecast for June 2017. expert opinion

Now oil prices will be primarily influenced by news from the United States. According to some experts, the automobile season in June may stop the decline in oil prices. In addition, keep an eye on weekly statistics on US oil reserves and the number of active drilling rigs.

The trends of recent months confirm fears about the growth of “black gold” production in the States.

Zenit Bank analyst Vladimir Evstigneev notes that the Russian ruble reacted poorly to the decline in oil prices after the results of the OPEC+ meeting.

Apart from oil, the ruble now has no reason to decline, but if the volatility of commodity markets increases, then the Russian currency will have no chance of maintaining current exchange rates.

Dollar and euro exchange rates in June 2017, Central Bank of the Russian Federation by day: table and graph

The statement that the oil countries will continue to comply with the previously concluded agreement did not stimulate the growth of oil, which means that the dollar has every chance to rise.

Most American experts are confident that the growth of the national currency is inevitable.

If the crisis in Ukraine does not end, and oil does not rise in price, we will be able to see a strengthening of the dollar very soon.

Dollar forecast for June 2017

Leading analyst of the TeleTrade group of companies Anastasia Ignatenko believes that the growth of the dollar can only be helped by overcoming the psychological mark of $51-51.50 per barrel of Brent oil. At the same time, she notes that the position of the American currency looks rather weak and even oil, which is on the border of a growing trend, is unable to help it: “the USD/RUB pair closed April in positive territory, but a reversal has not yet occurred.”

Bloomberg also believes that all the signs of the financial storm that are approaching America are visible: a 9.8% decline in corporate profits in the first quarter of the year, failed investments - all this will ultimately lead to a classic crisis.

The latest dollar exchange rate forecast for June 2017

Analysts expect GDP growth to continue in the future, indicating that the negative effects of the recession have been successfully overcome. However, external factors can again undermine the country's economy. Read also the latest dollar exchange rate forecast for July 2017. IMF staff have identified several factors that could weaken the current situation:

• Reducing the cost of energy resources.
• Geopolitical situation, including the future fate of sanctions.
• Deterioration in the global economy.

Improvements in the economy lead to a strengthening of the Russian ruble, which continues to strengthen against all world currencies. The ruble/dollar exchange rate also decreased as a result of an improvement in the trade balance. The period from early January to March is favorable for the national currency, as during this period the number of export transactions increases.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for 2018 in Russia, analytics

Former Russian Finance Minister, now head of the Center for Strategic Research, Alexei Kudrin, believes that the dollar will cost 60 rubles. He associates such a disappointing forecast for the dollar exchange rate for June 2017 with oil prices, or more precisely, with volatility, which affects the low exchange rate of the Russian national currency.

Dollar exchange rate: expert forecasts I agree with the forecast of the ex-head of the Ministry of Finance and the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Maxim Oreshkin - earlier he announced the expected decline of the ruble in the 2-3 quarters of this year, the reasons for which will be seasonal factors.

The department has prepared an analyst forecast, according to which the dollar exchange rate in Russia will reach 68 rubles at the end of 2017 and 70.8 rubles at the end of 2018.

US dollar exchange rate history (June 2017)

July 1993 June 1993 May 1993 April 1993 March 1993 February 1993 January 1993 December 1992 November 1992 October 1992 September 1992 August 1992 July 1992<< Дата Курс 30.06.2017 59.085500 29.06.2017 59.541500 28.06.2017 58.884300 27.06.2017 59.001400 26.06.2017 59.656400 25.06.2017 59.656400 24.06.2017 59.656400 23.06.2017 60.148200 22.06.2017 60.000000 21.06.2017 58.578600 20.06.2017 57.958500 19.06.2017 57.740800 18.06.2017 57.740800 17.06.2017 57.740800 16.06.2017 57.443700 15.06.2017 57.030300 14.06.2017 56.909600 13.06.2017 57.002000 12.06.2017 57.002000 11.06.2017 57.002000 10.06.2017 57.002000 09.06.2017 56.985700 08.06.2017 56.587800 07.06.2017 56.674700 06.06.2017 56.615200 05.06.2017 56.687600 04.06.2017 56.687600 03.06.2017 56.687600 02.06.2017 56.537300 01.06.2017 56.687600 Вы также может рассчитать сегодняшний курс Доллар США история курса валюты на нашем валютном калькуляторе.