Ten heads of Russian regions may resign this week. "Frame shake." Why does Putin change governors?

On February 6, the governor of the Perm Territory, Viktor Basargin, resigned early; on February 7, the head of the Republic of Buryatia, Vyacheslav Nagovitsyn, did the same. Before the elections in September 2017, several more top officials of the country’s regions may leave their posts. In most cases, statements are written at the direction of the Kremlin. We tell you what they did wrong before the presidential administration and who is in line to resign.

Which governors have resigned in recent months?

Viktor Basargin has held the governor's chair since 2012, with less than four months remaining in his term of office. He expressed ambitions to seek a new term, but at the same time had a low position in the Kremlin ratings due to the difficult socio-economic situation in the region and conflicts between local elites.

Nagovitsyn was allegedly also running for a new term. But, announcing his resignation, he said that he would not go to the elections. The region also faced a difficult economic and political situation. There has been a lot of talk about his resignation over the past year.

From the summer of last year until February of this year there was a lull. But so that the new head of the region has time to prepare for the elections, rotation will be carried out now. Although not in every case this is done in the hope of good results for the region.

Who makes the decision?

In most cases, governors do not leave of their own free will. There are two main options: an application for early resignation of one’s own free will or removal from office by the president. There are several political influence groups in the Kremlin, and many governors are supported by one group or another. But President Putin always makes decisions on a specific governor personally.

"Before he (the President - approx. ed.) makes a decision on resignation, analytical notes and monitoring are prepared for him, the opinion of elite groups is taken into account. Next, the search for successors begins, and when the approvals are completed, someone from the administration leadership meets with the outgoing governor and agrees to write a letter of resignation of his own free will and the date of publication of this information. At such a last meeting, you can ask for something and resolve the issue with future employment. Usually they meet the outgoing governor halfway,” an unnamed interlocutor told Znak.com.

As a rule, resignation is not an unexpected event. Until now, its harbingers were pro-Kremlin ratings, on which the presidential administration relied. Now the federal media are writing about the Kremlin’s new system for assessing the work of governors.

“Konstantin Ilkovsky did absolutely the right thing: he did not cling to his position. Seeing that it was not working out, he wrote a letter of resignation. It was honest.”

In 2014, the governor of the Krasnoyarsk Territory resigned of his own free will. Lev Kuznetsov. His position in front of the federal center was also weak.

Which other Russian governor may resign?

Pro-Kremlin ratings, we repeat, no longer play a leading role, but they do matter. For example, the monthly rating of the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation. In the January 2017 ranking, its compilers predict the possible early resignation of ten governors. Moreover, two of them - Viktor Basargin and Vyacheslav Nagovitsyn - have already lost their posts.

25 Sep 2017, 14:00

Hopes dissipate, euphoria wears off. And since the governor is not local, the elites’ opposition and confrontation with the legislative assembly begins (in the case of Novosibirsk, don’t go to the fortune teller). And from the point of view of the presidential administration, they changed the awl to soap. Therefore, if we are to take such a radical step, then the “honeymoon” should fall exactly on the presidential elections.

In the media and on the Internet, discussions about the upcoming (or even supposedly already occurred) resignations of governors have intensified. The governor of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, Viktor Tolokonsky, who allegedly already flew “on the carpet” to the Kremlin (the regional administration denies it), is being sent into resignation with the greatest insistence. And there was even a rumor that he wrote “on his own.” The rumor lasted about four hours, after which the regional administration denied it.

Similar stories are in Barnaul and Omsk.

What does all this mean? Why did the wave of rumors (which even included respected federal publications) arise right now?

Many years of working at Taiga.info have taught me to react very restrainedly to rumors about the governor’s resignation, no matter what source they come from. For 10 years such rumors circulated about Tolokonsky, when he was the governor of the Novosibirsk region. And yes, in the end they were confirmed. For three years similar rumors circulated about Vasily Yurchenko. And he also ended up resigning (and due to lack of trust). Vladimir Gorodetsky was also “removed” almost from the moment of his election, but to no avail.

Sooner or later, rumors about the governor's resignation are confirmed - except for the case when he lost the election. And such a case has happened only once in the whole of Russia over the past ten years. But from a practical point of view, these rumors are “white noise” that carries no information. However, as well as refutations - we remember many cases when an official denies a rumor about his resignation in the morning, and in the evening writes a statement “on his own.”

However, the current rumors did not just appear out of nowhere. Our politics, oddly enough for developed authoritarianism, is subject to electoral cycles. And we are, of course, not talking about gubernatorial elections, but about the main and only ones that matter in Russia. Formally, they are called “elections of the President of the Russian Federation,” but in fact it is a referendum on confidence in Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.

The referendum must be fair (in the sense of counting votes) and legitimate (the same sources called the bar at 70% turnout and 70% “for” Vladimir Putin).

As you know, everything good in our state comes from Vladimir Putin, and everything bad comes from bad boyars (that is, governors and mayors). But if the governor is too bad, then his anti-rating can tarnish the sun of our political system, and this is completely unacceptable. Sometimes the problems of a governor's anti-rating are solved simply by removing him from the campaign - some regional headquarters is appointed, a respected athlete (doctor, teacher, actor, academician) is put in charge and campaigning is carried out on his behalf.

Compared to his former boring boss, the governor looks fresh, meets with the public, hugs deputies and criticizes officials. The people and the elite are full of hope and fall into euphoria

But if the regional agenda is too hot, then people with this agenda will first trample to the regional headquarters, and then begin to break through to pre-election events.

And then the governor’s resignation may be the cure. And now is the time for such “pre-election” resignations. I'll explain why.

When a new governor is appointed to a region, the first period can be considered a “honeymoon.” Compared to his old boring boss, he looks fresh, meets with the public, hugs deputies and criticizes officials of the previous administration. The people and the regional elite are full of hope and euphoria.

But then, but then...

Then the elite discovers that the new boss is not very smart (and where do they get smart in a system where the main thing is to keep them and not let them go?). And that he is not relying on local promising personnel (and the locals have an exaggerated idea of their prospects), but dragging some kind of crook (in fact, the same as the locals) from their previous job.

The people suddenly discover that old problems are not being solved, and old and well-known corruption schemes continue to exist under the new governor.

The people naively thought that the new governor was appointed to stop these schemes, not understanding the simple fact that he was appointed from the very place where they grow.

Therefore, if we are to take such a radical step as changing the governor in difficult regions (why change in simple ones?), then the “honeymoon” should fall exactly on the presidential elections. Well, governors must also go to the polls. And if they coincide with the presidential ones, this will increase turnout. And given the lackluster nature of the presidential elections, turnout is the main problem. And here's a surprise - it is in problem regions that it is lowest. So all the dice fall in October or November.

The most fascinating thing in all this is that the fate of the governors is decided by some sociological calculations and calculations. Nothing personal, just technology.

Alexey Mazur

The rotation in the gubernatorial corps is aimed at its renewal, press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday, commenting on the decrees of the head of state on the dismissal of a number of regional heads. Today it became known that the governor of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, Viktor Tolokonsky, and the head of Dagestan, Ramazan Abdulatipov, are also resigning.

Viktor Tolokonsky and Ramazan Abdulatipov announced their upcoming resignations on Wednesday themselves. The head of Dagestan explained the decision by “greening the workforce.” “We are conscientious people, so we understand when it is necessary to write about resignation. There are some general laws. Well, it’s been 71 years already. The greening of personnel is underway,” Abdulatipov said on the air of the Komsomolskaya Pravda radio station.

It is worth noting that neither Tolokonsky nor Abdulatipov can be classified as “long-term leader” governors. The first has led the Krasnoyarsk Territory since 2014, the second led Dagestan in 2013. Nikolai Merkushkin became governor of the Samara region in 2012, but before that he had led Mordovia since 1995. Valery Shantsev has headed the Nizhny Novgorod region since 2005.

That is, it cannot be said that the reason for the resignations in all four cases was only a long term at the head of the regions. In half - maybe, but in the other half it’s hard to say that they would stay too long... And what then?

According to Dmitry Peskov, “the rotation process in the corps of regional leaders is an absolutely normal, demanded and expected process.” In his opinion, it is worth talking not to “young technocrats”, but to “young, wide-ranging” specialists.

“And, in fact, these are the same young, talented, wide-ranging specialists, and the president has repeatedly drawn attention to the fact that they all have experience working in federal authorities in a variety of areas, regional authorities. And, in fact, in the opinion President, they are capable of realizing the potential that they have already developed, despite their young age, in the interests of the development of the regions that they lead,” he added.

After the elections in September, reports appeared in the press that changes in governors were planned in ten regions. Actually, no one really makes a secret of this - for example, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak said the day before that the effectiveness of the activities of the authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation is being assessed, and therefore he does not rule out the resignation of governors.

True, the press services of the heads of these dozen regions comment on the information about the resignations in much the same way as Yevgeny Savchenko did in the winter - they say, as we worked, so we work. Except that they don’t talk about participating in the elections, which is quite understandable - they are not coming soon. And Valery Shantsev denied his imminent resignation, and those around Viktor Tolokonsky denied it - which did not delay the announcement of his resignation too much.

President of the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation Mikhail Vinogradov, in a conversation with a Pravda.Ru correspondent, noted that he considers the probability of replacing 4-5 governors almost 100% and the resignation of a larger number of regional heads (within ten) close to 80%. “The obligation to deny future resignations has many negative aspects, and either they decided to abandon it, or Tolokonsky and Abdulatipov themselves decided that it was humiliating and took the initiative,” the political scientist believes.

There are several reasons for the next wave of rotation in the gubernatorial corps, according to Mikhail Vinogradov: “The desire of the presidential administration to demonstrate its readiness and ability to lobby for early replacements (in the winter, apart from the spring arrests not initiated by the Presidential Administration, there was still a replacement of those whose term of office) until a certain reorganization of public and elite sentiments in the regions, satisfaction of the request for rejuvenation and renewal of the elite, especially considering that such rejuvenation and renewal may not follow in the list of candidates for the presidential elections."

Director of the Center for Political Technologies Igor Bunin linked the resignations of regional heads with preparations for a new presidential cycle, “in which other people should be governors—“younger, more energetic, more modern.”

“This is the main task. We must understand that a significant part of the governors who have now been fired have lost their support group, their “roofs”, those people who promoted them. And therefore this change is quite natural. That is, as usual, before the new the cycle is consolidating the position of other lobby groups, this process is quite natural. In fact, two processes coincided,” says Igor Bunin.

The political scientist called the reaction of the governors to press reports about a possible resignation natural. "Some information appears, the governor is not entirely sure that this information is true, he has not yet been informed, he has many subordinates. What should he say? That all this is an absolute invention, in fact I am a big boss. This is a natural human reaction," said Igor Bunin.

However, the rotation process will clearly not end with today’s announcements of resignations. But in what form further, in Ramazan Abdulatipov’s terminology, “greening” will take place is an open question. In this regard, we probably shouldn’t rule out some surprises.

On September 25, the leaders of the Samara and Nizhny Novgorod regions, the Krasnoyarsk Territory, Dagestan and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug were replaced. Judging by expert estimates and media leaks from “informed sources,” another 10-12 regions may experience a “personnel shake” in the foreseeable future.

“With rare exceptions, new appointees are united by a certain set of qualities,” AiF said. General Director of the Center for Political Information Alexey Mukhin.- These are young (on average 40-45 years old), but already quite experienced managers who have worked in high positions in the federal center (deputy ministers, senators, etc.). The main task of the new generation of “technocratic governors” is to create favorable conditions in the regions so that the population does not leave there, so that social elevators work for young and ambitious professionals. Today it is often difficult for them to get into the regional elite - it is easier to go to Moscow than to stay to develop their native region.”

“We are witnessing the cultivation of a new political generation, which must pass through the regional level of government and in the future be in demand, including in federal posts,” believes Head of the Center for Economic and Political Reforms Nikolai Mironov.“The current appointees are future ministers, leaders of a completely new quality, who have worked in the regions and therefore know the country well, not suffering from populism and incompetence, so characteristic of many officials.”

However, according to Mironov, the current wave of personnel changes has another subtext: “The ongoing rotation is predetermined by the upcoming presidential elections. They change governors in those regions where the situation is unstable, where there is conflict within the elite and a poor economic situation. Somewhere the leader is not coping well, he has low ratings, and, accordingly, low ratings in power as a whole. Somewhere there is high protest activity, which the current head cannot cope with: instead of negotiating with the dissatisfied, he suppresses their activity by force - and the protest wave rises again. The authorities are interested in conducting high-quality presidential elections and getting good results. And the point is not so much that the administrative machine should hold the March elections without glitches, but rather that voters should look to the future with hope and be ready to vote more positively and not go into protest.”

As an example, the expert cites the Samara region, where the conflict in the elite has been brewing for a very long time, and there was also high protest activity, including at enterprises in the region. The governor demanded unquestioning obedience, “bossed”, and could not or did not want to negotiate with other players. As a result, a potentially successful region became one of the problematic ones, where government ratings fell and population discontent grew.

By the way

Nikitin time

Many immediately noticed the resemblance Acting Samara Governor Dmitry Azarov with another new appointee, Head of the Nizhny Novgorod region Gleb Nikitin(see photo) - right down to the hairstyle and suit. Social networks even began to joke that the Kremlin was cloning or 3D printing new governors. It has not gone unnoticed that there are now three governors in Russia named Nikitin - in the Tambov, Novgorod and Nizhny Novgorod regions. And two of them also had the same middle name.

Acting governors Dmitry Azarov (left) and Gleb Nikitin. Photo: Collage AiF/RIA Novosti

A massive wave of dismissals of heads of constituent entities of the Russian Federation has begun in Russia. Within a few days, the head of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug Igor Koshin, the governor of the Samara region Nikolai Merkushkin, the governor of the Nizhny Novgorod region Valery Shantsev, and the governor of the Krasnoyarsk region Viktor Tolokonsky were dismissed. Meanwhile, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Government Dmitry Kozak said that he expects a change of leadership in at least 12 constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

Now experts predict the resignation of the governor of the Primorsky Territory Vladimir Miklushevsky, the head of Kalmykia Alexei Orlov, the head of the Omsk region Viktor Nazarov, the head of the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania Vyacheslav Bitarov, the heads of the Vladimir, Magadan and Murmansk regions Svetlana Orlova, Vladimir Pecheny and Marina Kovtun, respectively, the governor of the Altai Territory Alexander Karlin, as well as the Governor of St. Petersburg Georgy Poltavchenko. Political scientists consider the mayor of Moscow Sergei Sobyanin, the head of the Tula region Alexei Dyumin and the head of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug Dmitry Kobylkin to be the most firmly in their seats.

Among the retirees are recent newcomers belonging to the category of “young personnel reserve”, and iconic figures who have been on the political Olympus for decades. People of completely different ages, with different political biographies - why did their departure take place now and so simultaneously? It is worth noting that this year this is already the second wave. The first one swept across the country in February. Then Vladimir Putin removed the leaders in five constituent entities of the Russian Federation - the Perm Territory, the Novgorod and Ryazan regions, the republics of Buryatia and Karelia.

Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov commented on the situation as follows: “The head of state is following the path of rotational renewal of the governor’s corps. This is an absolutely normal process." However, experts are not content with such general phrases and are trying to find the reasons for the massive “cleansing”. What could have caused this series of layoffs that have already taken place and those yet to come?

Version 1

The Kremlin is worried about the results of the presidential election

This version is confirmed in many appointments. For example, the first in the current wave to retire was 66-year-old Nikolai Merkushkin. However, age was not his only disadvantage. It seems that he lobbied too openly for the interests of his Mordovian business protégés, which caused a strong conflict with almost the entire regional elite, which began to feel second-class. And this already promised problems in the elections, so undesirable for the center. As a result, the Samara region was headed by a local native, member of the Federation Council, former mayor of Samara, 47-year-old Dmitry Azarov.

There is an even more striking contrast in age between retirees and appointees in a number of other regions. So, instead of 70-year-old Shantsev, the Nizhny Novgorod region was headed by the former first deputy minister of industry and trade of the Russian Federation, 40-year-old Gleb Nikitin. Political scientist Alexander Kynev notes: “Older governors speak a different language. In addition, both Merkushkin and Shantsev were strangers in the regions and were in conflict with the locals. And after their resignations, there is no need to worry about the results of the presidential campaign there.”

Version 2

There is a behind-the-scenes struggle between “Kremlin clans”

According to a number of experts, several new appointees at once have connections with the same financial and industrial group – the Rostec state corporation, controlled by a member of the “inner circle” Sergei Chemezov. This applies to both the new Nizhny Novgorod governor Nikitin and his Samara colleague Azarov. 31-year-old Anton Alikhanov (Kaliningrad region) and 37-year-old Andrei Nikitin (Novgorod region) who were appointed governors this year are considered close to the same Kremlin influence group.

Another part of the appointees - for example, the former Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, 38-year-old Alexander Tsybulsky, who headed the oil-bearing Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and the governor of the Perm Territory, 38-year-old Maxim Reshetnikov - belong in political science to the group of influence of the deputy chairman of the government Arkady Dvorkovich and the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina - the so-called group of system liberals. Political scientist Vladimir Slatinov believes: “The autonomy of governors ends in relations with large federal business players, who agree on the rules of the game in the center and on budget parameters. The heads of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are deprived of any independence in this regard; only donor regions can be considered an exception.” According to experts, following the wave of reappointments of governors in 2016–2017, the beneficiaries were the following groups: 1) the coalition of Chemezov, the head of the Russian Guard Viktor Zolotov, the head of the presidential administration Anton Vaino and his predecessor Sergei Ivanov, 2) the group of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, 3) the group Speaker of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin.

Version 3

Neutralizing sentiments of growing federalism

Among the retired governors, there are many who led regions with growing social discontent. This includes Dagestan, the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Kaliningrad Region, and the Samara Region. It is no secret that today there is a silent but constant accumulation of discontent in the regions. There is not enough money there, and the heads transfer expenses from one item to another - this is not theft, but misappropriation of funds, a criminal offense. Every governor takes risks and feels uncomfortable. As a result, the spring of discontent is tightened, and the regions’ attitude towards the federal center is changing, not for the better.

In this situation, of course, there is a danger that some head of a subject of the Russian Federation will try to ride this wave, shifting claims from himself to the federal center. It is especially significant that in place of the humanist Professor Abdulatipov, they are tipped to replace the former first deputy head of the Russian Guard, commander of the federal troops in the North Caucasus, Sergei Melikov, who is capable of restoring order in the region with an iron fist. And the new head of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, according to preliminary information, will be faced with the task of uniting the district with the Arkhangelsk region, which the district elite has always perceived very negatively. In this regard, political scientist Slatinov calls the scheme of gubernatorial work hybrid: “The head of the region must manage to maintain balance while standing upside down: with one foot he must rest on some kind of publicity, with the other he must rest on the vertical.” Of course, in such a situation, it is beneficial to change governors as often as possible, before they have time to be outraged out loud by this state of affairs.