A possible successor to Tuleyev began to get acquainted with Kemerovo officials, the media say. The media named the likely successors of the head of Kuzbass Aman Tuleyev

There was a new turn in the post-operative leave of the governor of the Kemerovo region: on July 3, he was transported to Moscow by a special flight of the Ministry of Emergency Situations on the personal order of the Minister of Health of the Russian Federation Veronika Skvortsova.

"There are enough specialists in the region"

Little was known about the rehabilitation itself in one of the Kemerovo hospitals. Vice-Governor Valery Tsoi, at the already mentioned press conference, refused to talk about the terms of rehabilitation, as well as the diagnosis itself. A little later, the hospital’s chief physician, Andrei Ivanov, spoke to the local media, saying that “the doctors know the period of necessary rehabilitation and the governor is actively recovering and is eager to work so that the doctors have to restrain him.”

And like a bolt from the blue, the message on the transfer of Aman Tuleyev to the Central Clinical Hospital. True, the Central Clinical Hospital itself does not confirm the rehabilitation of the governor of the Kemerovo region. The press service of the Kemerovo region administration says that “the proposal from Skvortsova was received after another consultation via video conference with the participation of leading regional and federal healthcare specialists.” "Aman Tuleyev accepted this offer with gratitude and is now on rehabilitation treatment in a specialized Moscow clinic, which has a full range of capabilities for an intensive regime of rehabilitation therapy," the administration of the Kemerovo region said. "In my opinion, Tuleyev’s move from Kuzbass to Moscow looks strange, for the reason that there are enough specialized centers in the regions. These are the Scientific Research Institute of Traumatology and Orthopedics in Novosibirsk, the Miners' Health Center in Kuzbass, two specialized centers in Altai, and the Ilizarov Center in Kurgan. Everywhere there are highly qualified specialists and surgeons who can put any patient back on his feet. The same applies to the operation performed. There are big doubts about choosing Germany, when our microsurgeries are world-class,” shared his thoughts with the chief physician of one of the Siberian centers of orthopedics and traumatology, who wished to remain anonymous.

The interlocutor, answering the question about the terms of rehabilitation, said that there is not enough available data from media reports to speak specifically.

An example to follow

It is quite possible that Putin largely considers Tuleyev to be a role model in terms of long-term leadership of a specific territory without serious crises and conflicts. Therefore, it is very difficult to predict how possible negotiations between the Kremlin and Tuleyev might end,” Kalachev concluded.

Indeed, any dialogue about a successor is complicated by the fact that there are almost no successors themselves. There are Kuzbass politicians at the federal level who, for various reasons, are not suitable for the position of governor. Thus, former Kuzbass resident, secretary of the general council of the United Russia party, State Duma deputy from the Smolensk region Sergei Neverov answered in an interview with the Dozhd TV channel that he “ no gubernatorial ambitions". The rest of the Kuzbass parliamentarians of both chambers are either too dependent on business as a senator Alexander Lavrik, director of construction products at EVRAZ ZSMK, are either too young and inexperienced in the political field like the former head of the regional press service Anton Gorelkin, or they are not destined to receive approval from the majority of the electorate, like Pavel Fedyaev, the son of the president of the holding company "Siberian Business Union" Mikhail Fedyaeva. The only more or less real candidate who has significant political weight at the federal level and represents the coal industry is Senator Sergei Shatirov. He was the vice-governor of Tuleyev immediately after the resignation of Mikhail Kislyuk and since 2001 he has represented the interests of the Kemerovo region in the Federation Council.

However, he, like Neverov, may not want to exchange the already familiar Moscow for a region that, due to the resignation of the current governor, could become unstable overnight. That is why the names of Tuleyev’s specific successors are absent from the media, although it is unknown which trump cards in your pocket Vladimir Putin may have in dialogue with the governor of the Kemerovo region.

It is not Moscow that is in the fight for the governor’s seat, but a contender in the regional administration, says one of the experts interviewed by the NKN information blog. The specialist said that there is probably a third party vying for the position of head of the region. Publications about Tuleyev, which have recently caused a stir in the press, have one striking feature. There is consistency in them regarding the surname Tuleyev and Kuznetsov.

"In one text, Kuznetsov is called a young, top-rated and serious candidate for the post. And here Tuleyev is called a governor to whom the Kremlin is sending signals to leave, who has been heading the region for too long and everything in the same spirit. All texts that relate to articles about the upcoming elections. You don’t have to be a genius not to see the public clash between these people,”- said the interlocutor.

According to him, materials on this topic are fraught with inaccuracies. For example, information about the governor’s departure from United Russia to the “Serving Kuzbass” bloc is also an invention of the media. The expert said that the public confrontation between Presidential Advisor Anton Kobyakov and the resuscitation of the Tuleyev-Neverov conflict is beneficial to a third party, which has not yet openly entered into the struggle for power.

Of the most obvious candidates who have a rating, this is undoubtedly , and . “In my opinion, there is a very high probability that it was the first deputy who skillfully entered the fight for the governor’s seat, not yet publicly.”, - said the interlocutor.

In addition, according to experts, the appointment of federal politicians to the post of governor is unlikely, and not only because Kuzbass is a “complicated region” and a “Muscovite” may simply not be accepted.

“Neverov and Kobyakov are candidates with federal work experience. Governor’s work, where problems must be solved manually, is somewhat different. Therefore, when a publication comes out that Tuleyev’s main competitors are Neverov and Kobyakov. Then in response, a completely logical material appears, where experts explain, that in fact this is practically impossible, since these are relatively different areas of activity, and they (Neverov and Kobyakov) have no business experience,”- noted the expert.

The situation will definitely be “pumped up” to the “red zone”. Of the possible real rivals of the third party in Kuzbass, which has not yet been clearly indicated in the press, only . Which is actively, for “prevention”, “drowned” in the press from all sides.

“This is exactly where a candidate will appear with that same “economic work experience” who was relatively far from newspaper wars and clashes in the media, and accordingly did not suffer because of this reputational damage. And he will have a corresponding rating,"- the interlocutor summed up.

As a MorningNews correspondent reports from sources in the Kremlin, a list of candidates for the post of new governor of the Kemerovo region has been formed.

This was done due to the fact that the current governor, Aman Tuleyev, who has been leading the region for 20 years, has not returned from vacation. He left there at the end of April and exhausted the maximum limit of 45 days.

As a matter of fact, Aman Gumirovich was physically unable to go to work. He has undergone yet another major spinal surgery in the last 5 years. Apparently it wasn't very successful. Moreover, as some media reported, postoperative recovery was complicated by the onset of pneumonia.

Kemerovo media wrote that Tuleyev was eager to get to work and was about to return to it. However, on the personal instructions of the Minister of Health Veronika Skvortsova, Aman Tuleyev was flown to Moscow on a specially sent plane from the Ministry of Emergency Situations.

The situation, as informed sources say, is, to put it mildly, not very good. There are even rumors that before being transported to the capital, the governor did not eat for a whole week. In general, there seems to be little chance of returning to his duties.

It is no coincidence that a list of as many as 20 people appeared who could occupy the governor’s chair in Kuzbass.

20 is, of course, a very extended figure. Political scientists distinguish 4 people from it. Among them are the current first deputy governor Vladimir Chernov, the mayor of the city of Novokuznetsk Sergei Kuznetsov, State Duma deputy from the Kemerovo region Dmitry Islamov and the mayor of Nizhny Tagil in the Sverdlovsk region Sergei Nosov.

Sergey Kuznetsov.

It must be said that in addition to Nosov, the rest previously worked in the Tuleyev team, being his deputies. Vladimir Chernov became the first vice-governor relatively recently, after a series of scandalous resignations of the top leadership of Kuzbass, including the former first deputy Maxim Makin. All of them were accused of crimes related to corruption.

Makin was accused of lobbying in every possible way on the market the company Teploenergo, which he headed before joining the regional administration.

For example, Tuleyev’s now former deputies Alexey Ivanov and Alexander Danilchenko were placed under house arrest on suspicion of trying to take away a coal mine from one of the entrepreneurs in favor of another, using their official position.

Chernov, the former mayor of the Kuzbass city of Berezovsky, has not yet appeared in anything. And both negative and positive sense. And this suggests that Chernov is unlikely to be a worthy replacement for Tuleyev. Typical technical manager.

Other likely haymakers look brighter. For example, the charismatic mayor of Novokuznetsk, which is considered the southern capital of Kuzbass, Sergei Kuznetsov. Before that, he was deputy governor for entrepreneurship support. And in this field he showed such agility that he was hastily sent to steer Novokuznetsk. The city, of course, is not the worst in the Kemerovo region, but almost everyone considered this to be nothing more than exile.

If he is chosen as successor, the chances of becoming governor are quite high. After all, Kuznetsov managed to achieve recognition among the elites in Kemerovo and quite a lot of popularity among the residents of Novokuznetsk. And these two cities make up almost half of the Kuzbass electorate.

One can say about Dmitry Islamov that he belongs to the so-called intellectual wing of Kuzbass politics. Young, educated, intelligent. A sort of “white collar”. Under Tuleyev there were deputies for economics.

Dmitry Islamov.

Why was he delegated as a candidate for deputy in ND from Kuzbass, and won the elections in a single-mandate constituency with more than 70 percent of the votes. Now Dmitry Viktorovich is filling the gaps in Russian legislation.

As for the leader of the Ural Nizhny Tagil, Sergei Nosov, his appearance among the candidates for governor of the Kemerovo region, in the Kemerovo region itself, caused at least bewilderment.

Why did Moscow decide to make a Ural resident the governor of a largely key Siberian region? This is known only in the Kremlin. Only one thing is clear. Nosov has never had and has nothing to do with Kuzbass now.

And even if Nosov is engaged by the federals, it is a very big question that he will win. Siberia has long disliked strangers in leadership positions. This means that voters can simply give Nosov a ride in the elections. And this will be a sensitive “kick” for the Kremlin.

For some reason, in this deck of the most likely candidates, another name is not named. Although she has been discussed for quite some time as the main successor of Aman Tuleyev.

We are talking about the leader of United Russia and State Duma deputy Sergei Neverov. He has long been a Russian political heavyweight. They started writing about the fact that Neverov is the most likely replacement for Aman Tuleyev since last year.

Sergey Neverov.

Moreover, when Tuleyev became very ill, sources close to the Kuzbass elites reported that Neverov simply returned home more often. Maybe give some moral support to the governor?

And this, of course, can be. But not everyone believes this version. But Sergei Neverov is the most attractive personality for the Kuzbass electorate. A native Kuzbass resident (as they say, one who belongs to the board), who has gone through all the stages of his formation here, except for the fact that in Kuzbass he is of great importance - a miner.

How the AP will resolve this issue is, excuse the tautology, a very big question. In any case, for now the Kremlin will not make any decisive movements. Suddenly Aman Tuleyev will take it and go to work.

https://www.site/2017-06-21/posle_tuleeva_kemerovskaya_oblast_mozhet_stat_odnim_iz_samyh_problemnyh_regionov

Popular autocrat

After Tuleev, the Kemerovo region may become one of the most problematic regions

In the coming days, Kemerovo Governor Aman Tuleyev may resign of his own free will due to health reasons. This is what the publication's interlocutors close to the presidential administration say. One of them clarifies that the health of the veteran governor (Tuleev has headed the region since 1997 and is one of the last governors of Yeltsin’s conscription who are still in office) worsened three months ago, but before that leaks were avoided.

Another interlocutor clarifies that the last time he saw Tuleyev was at the annual presidential address to the Federal Assembly and the governor moved with the help of a person specially assigned to him. The interlocutors do not yet risk predicting who can replace Tuleyev in his post, where he has spent the last 20 years. One way or another, it is obvious that the candidacy of a successor will be agreed upon with the outgoing heavyweight.

The experts interviewed note that it is quite difficult to judge the situation in the Kemerovo region: the information field of the region is tightly controlled. A few exotic stories reach the center. For example, several years ago Tuleyev established Bigfoot Day and promised a prize of one million rubles for the capture of the Yeti. “The money will be provided by the owners of the mining enterprises,” Tuleyev says in a video posted on YouTube, adding that he has already agreed with local shamans for help.

As an anti-crisis initiative, Tuleyev introduced a special program to provide large needy families with two female rabbits and one female rabbit free of charge. To receive rabbits, a family must write an application addressed to the governor. The program has been extended to 2017; previously, thousands of needy families received rabbits and there are already offspring, writes Baikal news agency.

In 2011, the author of the text had at his disposal closed sociological surveys of the FOM on the ratings of governors, intended for the presidential administration. According to this survey, the ratings of many governors did not even reach 15%, but Tuleyev became the leader of that closed rating: according to the FOM, in the fall of 2011 he was supported by 78% of the population (the survey was not conducted in Chechnya). The author of the current text then published a note about this. The next day, Aman Tuleyev’s press service issued a press release: “According to closed polls by the FOM, Aman Tuleyev is the most popular Russian governor.”

In the latest “Efficiency Rating of Governors”, which is periodically released by the Civil Society Development Foundation under the leadership of Konstantin Kostin, Tuleyev was placed in 5th-6th place - after Vladimir Yakushev (Tyumen region), Dmitry Kobylkin (Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug), Anatoly Artamonov (Kaluga region), Rustem Minnikhanov (Tatarstan) and Ramzan Kadyrov (Chechnya).

“Tuleev’s special feature is his ultra-high recognition. He is probably one of the five to ten most recognizable governors in the country for the average person. He acts as the patriarch of politics, having absorbed the respondents’ idea of ​​the optimal combination of the advantages of Soviet power and adaptation to market realities. To what extent this correlates with reality is difficult for the average person to understand, since the media has been “built up” under Tuleyev,” says Mikhail Vinogradov, head of the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation.

the site looked into the reasons for Tuleyev’s political longevity and his possible political legacy - if the resignation of the 73-year-old governor does take place.

Yeltsin's rival, Putin's partner

Tuleyev's political career began in 1990, when he was elected as a people's deputy of the RSFSR, becoming chairman of the Kemerovo Regional Council of People's Deputies. In August 1991, Tuleyev promised State Emergency Committee participant Gennady Yanaev to sign every word of the State Emergency Committee’s appeal, and in 1994 he became not only the head of the Kemerovo Legislative Assembly, but also a member of the Federation Council. On July 1, 1997, President Boris Yeltsin appointed Tuleyev governor of the Kemerovo region. In September of the same year, Tuleyev won the gubernatorial elections with a result of 94.5%. In 2001, he was re-elected early and won with 93.5% of the vote. After that, in the 2000s, Tuleyev was reappointed to this post twice, and in 2015 he again took part in the gubernatorial elections and gained 96.6%.

B. Korobeinikov / RIA Novosti

Tuleyev ran for the presidency of Russia three times. In 1991, he received 6.81% of the vote (fourth place out of six); in the 1996 presidential elections, he withdrew his candidacy in favor of Gennady Zyuganov on the eve of the first round of voting. In the 2000 elections, Tuleyev received 2.95% of the vote, with almost all the votes cast in the Kemerovo region, where he overtook Vladimir Putin and took first place.

Tuleyev was an atypical Yeltsin appointee - a folk hero of Kuzbass, the leader of the local opposition, and twice Yeltsin’s competitor in the presidential elections, recalls political scientist Vitaly Ivanov.

“It was strange that Tuleyev agreed to become an appointed governor, since he could have simply gone to the polls and won them, but he chose to come to the region, having been appointed by Yeltsin’s decree. The secret of his longevity is that until recently he had good health, and at the same time, in the late nineties and early 2000s, he provided the state with serious political services by taming Kuzbass. He behaved constructively and during the 2000 presidential campaign, he established constructive relations with the oligarchs in the region - in fact, the only one who suffered was Zhivilo. He showed managerial talent, becoming a friend both to the people and to big business. He spoke harshly to the oligarchs, but also gave them a lot. With his departure, the “golden age” of Kuzbass will end. In recent years, the economic situation has not been the most favorable for him, but is Tuleyev to blame for this?” - argues Ivanov, characterizing him as “a very successful politician, one of the best governors in the last twenty years.”

Yuri Abramochkin / RIA Novosti

In the 1995 elections, Tuleyev, who collaborated with the communists throughout the 90s, was one of the top three of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Then in the region the Communist Party gained more than 60% of the votes. In 1999, Tuleyev was again included in the election list of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, but in the regional elections he supported the Unity bloc. He joined United Russia in 2005.

Tuleyev later even sued Zyuganov. In 2008, the leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation lost to Tuleyev in court and had to pay compensation of 450 thousand rubles for the fact that shortly before that, on the air of the Ekho Moskvy radio station, he said that “Tuleev staged a plow in the Kemerovo region.” In 2011, Tuleev again sued the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, now with the regional branch for the article “Tuleev is sheltering pedophiles” posted on the party website. The first secretary of the Kemerovo regional committee, ex-State Duma deputy Nina Ostanina is constantly suing the governor and losing in court. Now there are only three factions in the Kemerovo Regional Legislative Assembly: United Russia (40 people), LDPR (1 person) and SR (1 person). There are no communists there.

In 2016, in the Kemerovo region, during the State Duma elections, the regional election commission announced that the turnout was 86.8% and United Russia won with a result of 77.33%, and the other parties did not receive even 10% of the votes. The regional group of United Russia, which included the region, was headed by Tuleyev.

Vladimir Rodionov / RIA Novosti

The former head of the territorial department of the internal policy department of the presidential administration, political consultant Andrei Kolyadin told the site that he watched Tuleyev from afar when he himself worked on Vladimir Putin’s election campaign in 2000.

“Tuleev gave the impression of a rational, negotiable person. The Department of Internal Policy has always treated him, and still treats him, with great respect,” Kolyadin told the website.

More authoritarian than the Kremlin

All experts describe Tuleyev’s political style as extremely authoritarian. Tuleyev is, on the one hand, relying on enhanced provision of social assistance to pensioners and low-income people, who form the core of his electoral base. At the same time, he has excellent relations with regional and federal financial and industrial groups, for whom he, being in words a left-wing populist, creates all the conditions for the realization of business interests.

Experts note several interesting features. Firstly, Tuleyev uses the top management of financial and industrial groups represented in the region to write government programs, says one of the publication’s interlocutors, close to the presidential administration. “In effect, the governor created for himself a system of free intellectual crowdsourcing,” he says.

As an anti-crisis measure, enterprises present in the region pay taxes in advance, that is, in 2017 - already for 2018, says the publication’s interlocutor. This allows us to solve operational problems, but in the future this pyramid will inevitably lead to a budget crisis, the source adds.

One of the businessmen close to Tuleyev is Roman Abramovich, who owns a third of the Evraz holding, which, in turn, has numerous business interests in the Kemerovo metallurgical industry (Evrazruda, EvrazEk companies, Raspadskaya coal mine, Metallenergofinance and many others).

Mikhail Klimentyev / RIA Novosti

Another holding close to Tuleyev is the Siberian Business Union with numerous assets in the field of ferrous metallurgy. One of the company’s co-owners, Vladimir Gridin, was a deputy from United Russia of the fifth and sixth convocations.

Current State Duma deputy Otari Arshba is closely associated with Tuleyev - until 2003 he was vice-president of Evrazholding, in 2002 he worked on Tuleyev’s election campaign, and from 2003 to 2008 he was chairman of the social council of Evraz S.A. One of the publication’s interlocutors among political strategists says that it was Arshba who largely controlled the information flows in the region and played his role extremely successfully: there is almost no negative information about Tuleyev in the region.

“In the 90s, Kuzbass was one of the most active regions of Russia; chaos there was higher than the national average, so the need for order appeared there earlier,” recalls political scientist Oleg Matveychev. — Tuleyev realized this need in a more rigid and eastern form than Vladimir Putin in the country as a whole. Tuleyev squeezed the opposition and built an authoritarian, impenetrable system. At the same time, he provides all possible social assistance to pensioners; they enjoy free travel in the region and all kinds of social benefits. All regional financial and industrial groups play by Tuleyev’s rules, those who disagree are squeezed out of the region. The social programs that financial and industrial groups implement in the region are branded by Tuleev, and not by their brands, as is usually the case: everywhere there are posters “Tuleev built”, “Tuleev restored”. This is done with the money of financial industrial groups, but is given credit to the governor. At the same time, the main industrial city of the region is Novokuznetsk, but money is taken from there and invested in Kemerovo. Tuleyev actually made Kemerovo from scratch a regional capital of the Soviet type, which is why Novokuznetsk does not like him: There are universities, hospitals in Kemerovo, people are forced to go there,” notes political scientist Matveychev.

Political strategist Dmitry Gusev calls Tuleyev a “hero of the early 90s,” when he was super popular among the working class and was considered, along with General Alexander Lebed, one of Boris Yeltsin’s possible competitors. “Yeltsin sent him to Kuzbass, and Tuleyev managed to cope with the region. Being a powerful man, he built the entire system for himself, destroyed the opposition, and organized the privatization of many enterprises. One of the businessmen close to him was Roman Abramovich. Tuleyev’s management scheme is structured like this: he blackmails the oligarchs with the fact that the people are behind him, he is really popular, so he demands that they invest in the region and in social programs. In public, he behaves like a populist, but in reality he guards the interests of the oligarchs. Maintaining this balance is what gives him the opportunity to remain in power all these years,” Gusev believes.

Among Tuleyev’s major conflicts with business, experts recall the story of businessman Mikhail Zhivilo, founder of the Metallurgical Investment Company. In the 2000s, Zhivilo had problems with the Siberian Business Union around the Chernigovets coal mine. Soon, Olympic champion Alexander Tikhonov was arrested and accused of preparing an assassination attempt on the governor. Zhivilo left for France, fearing arrest. Russia demanded his extradition, but the French side refused. In 2005, Zhivilo received political refugee status.

As for political conflicts, one of Tuleyev’s main current opponents is the head of the local Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Nina Ostanina. In addition, Tuleyev had a glaring conflict with the former mayor of Novokuznetsk Dmitry Martin, who headed the city from 1997 to 2010. In September 2009, on the initiative of Tuleyev, an inspection was organized of the Novokuznetsk Management Company, co-owned by the son of the city mayor, Maxim Martin. The audit revealed significant violations, a fact later confirmed by the Prosecutor General's Office. In mid-December 2010, a criminal case was opened against Sergei Martin for “abuse of official powers, resulting in grave consequences.” In 2015, Martin was sentenced to 4 years in prison, but was granted amnesty for the 70th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War.

Sergey Subbotin / RIA Novosti

In 2013, a corps of observers “For Clean Elections,” led by politician Boris Nadezhdin, came to the elections for the head of the city of Kemerovo. Observers spent election night at the police station. As Nadezhdin himself recalled, they were detained based on a police tip when they were driving to one of the polling stations to deal with the alleged stuffing of ballots, but the car was stopped because the police said that it matched the lead in the beating case. In the morning, the observers were released and went to the airport. The Dozhd TV channel quoted a statement from a Kemerovo police colonel, who said that the observers came to Kemerovo to establish their own rules and teach Kemerovo residents how to live.

Tuleyev’s entire life was spent in plain sight. Like all leaders of the labor movement, Tuleyev was close to the communists for some time, but then he quarreled with Zyuganov and won a lawsuit against him, says Konstantin Kostin, the former head of the internal policy department of the presidential administration, head of the Civil Society Development Foundation.

“Tuleev managed to create a fairly effective economic model, but it has largely exhausted itself and began to fail. He managed to solve many social issues; of all the heavyweight governors, he probably has the highest rating. In past years, if a visitor got into a taxi and said something bad about Tuleyev, in the best case they could throw him out, in the worst case it could lead to a fight. Tuleyev was one of the first governors to develop a system of compensation for victims of emergency situations, since the region is difficult in this regard - accidents occur in mines. Tuleyev worked on this issue 10 years ago and developed a compensation system. He built a model of social responsibility for business, modernized mines, and used the economic potential of the region to improve the social situation,” says Kostin.

Failed resignation

In recent years, rumors about Tuleyev’s resignation began to circulate several times on the political sidelines. According to one version, the then first deputy head of the administration, Vyacheslav Volodin, advocated for replacing the Kemerovo governor. Once (in the spring of 2015) there was even a leak from the Kremlin that the decision on resignation would be made in the coming days, but contrary to all expectations, this event did not happen. The Tuleyev administration did not escape the attention of the security forces as part of the anti-corruption campaign. In November 2016, Vice Governor Alexander Danilchenko was detained and accused of extorting shares in the Razrez Inskoy mine. At the same time, the head of the investigative department of the Investigative Committee for the Kemerovo Region, Sergei Kalinkin, and another vice-governor, Alexei Ivanov, were arrested. Tuleyev stood up for his subordinates, publicly calling them “decent people.” It is noteworthy that the defendants were given house arrest as a preventive measure, rather than the usual detention for such cases.

A cleared political field, accumulated economic problems. The Kemerovo region will not be a gift for Tuleyev’s successor, experts agree.

The head of the Political Expert Group, Konstantin Kalachev, recalls that the miners were the main instigators of the events of 1991; Kuzbass was then almost the most restless and dangerous region, which was able to ultimately calm the Tuleyevs.

Dmitry Astakhov / RIA Novosti

“Tuleev’s authority in the Kemerovo region in the 90s was almost limitless. It was not for nothing that in 2000, when he ran for president, he took first place there. “I think Vladimir Putin considers Tuleyev a person inscribed in the history of Russia, and the best that remains of the governor’s corps of the 90s,” says Kalachev. “Tuleev’s political longevity is ensured not only by the services he provided to the federal center, but also by Putin’s personal assessment of the scale of his personality. I think Putin considers him “the last of the Mohicans.” Tuleyev himself will determine the time of his resignation. This is the case when being in power prolongs life. I think Tuleyev may resign either due to a very serious illness, when he physically cannot work anymore, or if he dies at work,” says Kalachev, adding that it will be extremely difficult for the successor of the Kemerovo heavyweight: the system is built for him personally, the region is complex, and no one, including big business, really wants the “Tuleevism” to continue.

“Coal enterprises have already transferred taxes for the next year to the regional budget, so after the presidential elections, Kuzbass will face a serious economic crisis, because the money will already be spent,” reads a source from a website close to the presidential administration.

The head of regional programs of the Information Policy Development Fund, Alexander Kynev, calls the political regime in Kuzbass “rather authoritarian.”

“The territory shows an extremely high percentage of turnout and voting for power in elections. In the 90s, obviously, Aman Tuleyev was highly popular, but in recent years, analysts have expressed great skepticism about the Kuzbass electoral procedures. The region is put on a par with the North Caucasus in terms of electoral anomalies,” says Kynev. — For example, in a region with a large share of workers, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation does not overcome even the 5% barrier and does not even take second or third place in the elections. In the region, the authorities are so authoritarian that it is impossible to even assess the realities. There is almost no significant opposition, and extremely difficult conditions have been created for NGOs and independent media. There is an assumption that real support for the governor has decreased, and the replacement of Tuleyev looks inevitable, if not now, then in the foreseeable future. In my opinion, subsequently maintaining strict control over the region will be extremely difficult, and the Kemerovo region will become one of the most problematic regions of the country. There is such a thing as post-authoritarian syndrome, when after the departure of an authoritarian leader the situation becomes unstable and chaotic. I think that soon the situation when Kuzbass was a silent stronghold of the current government will remain a thing of the past,” says Kynev.

The mayor of Nizhny Tagil, a native of Evraz, Sergei Nosov, began to get acquainted with officials from the administration of the Kemerovo region as a successor to Aman Tuleyev, Taiga.info claims, citing sources in the power structures of the region. Meanwhile, the last session of the regional council was postponed from July 5 to July 12 so that the successor could be introduced to deputies.

According to the publication, the candidacy of Sergei Nosov has already been agreed upon with all interested parties. “He began to get acquainted with some officials in the administration. He requests economic and political information on the region. He is presented to locals as approved by the Kremlin,” says an informed source in Kuzbass.

The publication suggests that the 73-year-old current governor of the Kemerovo region, Aman Tuleyev, who is undergoing rehabilitation after spinal surgery, was transported to a Moscow hospital in order to persuade him to resign and resign after 20 years of leadership of the region.

Sources of "Taiga.info" claim that none of the local politicians satisfied the Kremlin as the successor to the Kuzbass political long-liver. Among the rejected candidates, sources name the first vice-governor and former head of Anzhero-Sudzhensk Vladimir Chernov, State Duma deputy from the Prokopyevsky district (and Tuleyev’s former deputy for economics and regional development) Dmitry Islamov, as well as the mayor of Novokuznetsk Sergei Kuznetsov. Another candidate discussed in the media - President of the Siberian Business Union holding Mikhail Fedyaev - was allegedly not even considered.

The press service of the regional administration responded to Interfax's request that they did not have information about the upcoming personnel changes in the regional leadership. Representatives of the regional administration were also unable to confirm or deny information about Sergei Nosov’s possible trip to the region.

The press service of the regional parliament reported that the session was postponed to July 12 due to the preparation of the agenda, and not in connection with the possible arrival of Nosov. “The Coordination Council decided to postpone the session to next week due to the formation of the agenda and resolution of internal issues. We are not expecting guests,” the message says.

At the same time, Znak.com claims that the final decision regarding the political future of Kuzbass has not yet been made. According to the most likely scenario, the publication believes, Sergei Nosov will first have to win the September elections in Nizhny Tagil, change the city management system, support the acting head of the region Evgeny Kuyvashev in the gubernatorial elections, and then receive a promotion.

As the publication recalls, information that Sergei Nosov, who enjoys almost Chechen support from the population (92% of the votes in the last mayoral elections), can replace Aman Tuleyev, has been discussed since the end of last year. Allegedly, at the beginning of the year, United Russia tried to find a replacement for Nosov as mayor, but given his high rating, this turned out to be difficult. As a result, the party nominated him again.

Today, Nizhny Tagil remains the only region in the Sverdlovsk region where a management system with direct elections of the mayor, who simultaneously heads the city administration, has been preserved. The regional administration expects that Nosov, having won the elections in September, will initiate amendments to the city charter. Nizhny Tagil is planned to be transferred to the system that has been introduced in most cities in the Sverdlovsk region: the municipality is governed by a single head, who is appointed by competition without direct elections.

As for the gubernatorial elections, it is assumed that Nosov will campaign for Kuyvashev as one of the potential senatorial candidates. At the same time, informed sources are sure that if Kuyvashev wins, he plans to reappoint the current senator of the Federation Council Eduard Rossel, so Nosov’s participation in this case is important only until voting day.

Nosov himself reacted nervously when asked to comment on the current situation. “Write what you want, I won’t comment on anything,” he snapped.

Tuleyev's likely successor was born in Magnitogorsk, graduated from the Magnitogorsk Mining and Metallurgical Institute. G.I. Nosova. He began his working career as a steelworker's assistant and as a furnace production foreman. In the 90s, he rose to the rank of deputy general director and member of the board of directors of the Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works, but left the enterprise in 1998 due to a conflict with the team of general director Viktor Rashnikov.

After this, Nosov moved to Nizhny Tagil, where he became the general director of the Nizhny Tagil Iron and Steel Works and vice president of Evraz-Holding LLC, the main shareholder of the enterprise. In 2002-2003, he worked part-time as managing director of the West Siberian Metallurgical Plant (Novokuznetsk). Later he worked in the structures of the state corporation "Rostechnologies". In October 2012, he won the elections for the head of Nizhny Tagil.

The website Ura.com recalls that as mayor of Nizhny Tagil, Nosov demonstrated expression more typical of the charismatic 1990s. In those days, as the head of the Nizhny Tagil Iron and Steel Works, he “blowed up the halls” and entered into public polemics with Governor Eduard Rossel.

“Women love such battles, men do not mind having such friends. But such battles no longer exist. They are not accepted, they are not supported, they are considered indecent, because the rules of work for politicians have changed. Because the main requirement for any effective manager has become the ability to negotiate. And Nosov knows this for sure: everyone who is bright and emotional was taught a lesson by his example. 2003: the shameful removal of Sergei Konstantinovich from the post of leader of the United Russia branch, sanctioned by Moscow, the transfer of powers to the then Prime Minister Alexei Vorobyov, and then public humiliation - 6th place in list of candidates for State Duma deputies from the party under whose banner he fought against the regional authorities,” the publication writes.

The head of the International Institute of Political Expertise, Evgeny Minchenko, believes that the future political prospects of Sergei Nosov in Kuzbass depend on two factors. “Firstly, from Tuleyev’s health. Secondly, from the results of the struggle within Putin’s “Politburo 2.0.” Nosov is historically close to Evraz, which has serious influence in the Kuzbass, and if Roman Abramovich sets the task of lobbying for Nosov’s appointment as governor of the Kemerovo region “I think he can succeed,” says Minchenko.

“It is still obvious that a decision regarding the Kemerovo region has not been made, but the problem is being discussed, and the name of Sergei Nosov as a possible successor to Tuleyev does indeed appear,” confirmed the head of regional programs of the Information Policy Development Fund, Alexander Kynev.

In his opinion, “everyone understands that the person who will manage Kuzbass must have a certain elite status and management experience.” “Sergei Nosov, who has a reputation as a tough person, meets these parameters. He has experience working with such a problematic industrial area as Nizhny Tagil, and he is clearly perceived as a political heavyweight,” Kynev explained.

In addition, the political scientist notes, Nosov is not personally connected with Kubzass, and this corresponds to the latest trends in appointments. “Kuzbass is a complex territory where there are a lot of contradictions between the elites. And you need to understand that it will be difficult for anyone there: Nosov, and Tuleyev’s deputies, and the mayor of Novokuznetsk, and any other potential candidates whose names are announced,” Kynev summed up.